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Abstract Plant phenology regulates the carbon cycle and land‐atmosphere coupling. Currently, climate models often disagree with observations on the seasonal cycle of vegetation growth, partially due to how spring onset is measured and simulated. Here we use both thermal and leaf area index (LAI) based indicators to characterize spring onset in CMIP6 models. Although the historical timing varies considerably across models, most agree that spring has advanced in recent decades and will continue to arrive earlier with future warming. Across the Northern Hemisphere for the periods 1950–2014, 1981–2014, and 2015–2099 in the historical and SSP5‐8.5 simulations, thermal‐based indicators estimate spring advances of −0.7 ± 0.2, −1.4 ± 0.4, and −2.4 ± 0.7 days/decade, while LAI‐based indicators estimate −0.4 ± 0.3, −0.1 ± 0.3, and −1±1.1 days/decade. Thereby, LAI‐based indicators exhibit weaker trends toward earlier onset, leading to uncertainties from different indices being as large or larger than model uncertainty. Reconciling these discrepancies is critical for understanding future changes in spring onset.more » « less
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Primack, Richard_B; Ellwood, Elizabeth_R; Gallinat, Amanda_S; Miller‐Rushing, Abraham_J (, New Phytologist)Summary Botanical gardens make unique contributions to climate change research, conservation, and public engagement. They host unique resources, including diverse collections of plant species growing in natural conditions, historical records, and expert staff, and attract large numbers of visitors and volunteers. Networks of botanical gardens spanning biomes and continents can expand the value of these resources. Over the past decade, research at botanical gardens has advanced our understanding of climate change impacts on plant phenology, physiology, anatomy, and conservation. For example, researchers have utilized botanical garden networks to assess anatomical and functional traits associated with phenological responses to climate change. New methods have enhanced the pace and impact of this research, including phylogenetic and comparative methods, and online databases of herbarium specimens and photographs that allow studies to expand geographically, temporally, and taxonomically in scope. Botanical gardens have grown their community and citizen science programs, informing the public about climate change and monitoring plants more intensively than is possible with garden staff alone. Despite these advances, botanical gardens are still underutilized in climate change research. To address this, we review recent progress and describe promising future directions for research and public engagement at botanical gardens.more » « less
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